Climate modelling: the science, projections and uncertainty

Date of and time of broadcast:

Wednesday 9th December 09 5pm-6pm GMT

Audio from the show: click here

The climate change debate is mainly shaped by modelling. It is through modelling that a vast array of complex climate data is computed; it is with this data and models that the segmenting of probable futures into different scenarios and projections is made possible and the accuracy of these scenarios verified.

Against these modelled scenarios political discussions are taking place, policy and legislature being refined and passed, business and economic practises being transitioned as a low carbon economy becomes the economy of the present as much as the aim for the future; and as we adapt to meet the triad of challenges: mitigation, social adaptation to mitigation and physical adaptation to meet the challenges of the changes, cultural norms are being altered.

But what is the science of modelling, how did it develop and what is the journey from the raw data to the series of scenarios depicting climatic catastrophes, and near misses?

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Joining us for the show are:

Ben Booth, senior scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, specialising in quantifying uncertainty in model predictions; and part of the team that delivered the world’s first projections that present uncertainty estimates of variables in the UK’s climate for the next century, UKCP09 - a public document available on the DEFRA Website. http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/

Tim Jupp, is a lecturer from the Mathematics Research Institute at the University of Exeter and a GWR Fellow looking at observational constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks through mathematical approaches. Considering, amongst other things, feedbacks between plants and the atmosphere, reducing uncertainty with satellite data and probabilistic forecasting; he is also part of Exeter Climate Systems, a centre of excellence in the application of mathematics and statistics to key challenges facing weather and climate science.
http://www1.secam.ex.ac.uk/xcs

Jeff Ridley is a  Climate Scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre. His work is focused on climate model assessment; climate change and Ice, and global sea level rise. His work contributes to representing the science to government and projections of polar climate change and leads on the development of ice sheet models. He also contributed to the Science Museum Exhibit on climate change ‘Prove-it”.
http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/proveit.aspx

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Blog: A behind the scenes review of the show adding context to the discussion and re-illuminating some of the more difficult questions.

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